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Jump To Comment: 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1Wow, I didn't know we had such talented military strategists on Indymedia!
I bet your phones a ringing off the hook with offers from the pentagon and their ilk. I think I'll reserve judgement on this one and listen to reliable sources thank you very much.
Yip, definatley an Israeli sympathiser.
If Iran is hit, the supply of Oil could be seriously curtailed. China is absolutely dependant on it. Any interruption of supply could massively impact on their economy.
Do you think thay are simply going to let that happen?
If you fall for the nonsense that US military hegemony has not been critically impacted on in the last 5 years over Iraq then you simply live in cloud cuckoo land. Tha US is mired in Iraq, Israel had its arse handed to it in Palestine last year (for all its impressive military sophistication), the Brits have all but surrendered in southern Iraq. The US is bankrupt and simply cannot afford to unleash the shock and awe you beleive they are capable of.
Israel will act alone if anything is to happen, it can just about hit 2 or maybe three of Irans nuclear facilities and that is with the permission of Irans neighbours (which it may not get) but thats about it. The iranians will recover in a matter of months.
Iran has a nuclear program. We know that for sure.
What is not known is whether it is purely civilian or whether it has a military purpose.
The US and Israel think "Who cares? Why take a chance?"
Iran probably does not have a nuke yet because they haven't tested it for the benefit of the press.
So if the US and Israel hit Iran before Iran can have the possibility of producing one there is no risk of nuclear war.
What nuclear power is going come to Iran's aid?
Besides once Iran's nuke industry is smashed the horse has bolted.
What would be the point?
There are no comebacks for Israel and the US if they hit Iran.
Russia and China are going to jump up and down in front of the press but not much more than that.
The technologically backward Iranian army, air force and navy are no match for the US forces in Iraq if they decide to launch a counter attack over the border. They will be laser-guided, cluster bombed, napalmed and daisy-cuttered off the face of the earth
Jurgen, your analysis smacks of CIA misinformed rubbish.
If you think an attack on Iran would destabilise the Iranian Government you're wrong. Every credible and reliable analysis claims the opposite. That an attack on Iran would rally its people around its Government and would effectively 'squash flat' all anti-government movements within Iran and put their efforts back decades.
The repercussions on an attack against Iran would be far reaching. It will not be a case of a few unpleasant but bearable months as you put it. The outcome cannot be predicted and all outcomes right up to Nuclear War are entirely possible.
You almost try and portray an attack as having far more positives than negatives. Only the Israelis, their surporters and US neo-cons peddle such tripe.
Which are you?
To hit the Iranian nuclear sites would require a combination of air strikes and commando raids.
Israel jets could take off from their airfields flying north over the Mediterranean crossing into Turkish airpace and hit Iran from the North refueling on the approach and home legs. They could try a more direct route over Jordan and Iraq or a souther route over Saudi Arabia and the Persian Gulf. The air attacks would serve to neutralise Iranian air defences and to hit security forces guarding the nuclear sites. Israeli commandoes could be positioned on the borders with Turkey, Iraq or other neighbouring countries with their agreement or aboard vessels in the Gulf to swoop in by helicopter immediately following the air attacks to finish off the defenders and blow up the installations.
Israeli casualties would be high - planes and helicopters would be shot down and pilots and commandoes would killed or captured and paraded as "war criminals" on Iranian television. There might be a few executions or else prisoner exchanges.
There would be political instability in Iran as pro-democracy groups might be bolder in criticising the government or organising demonstrations. This would either result in a massive brutal crackdown or the beginings of political reforms in Teheran and the weakening of the mullahs.
Journalists would print acres of ink condemning Israel, anti-war protest groups and Muslim demonstrators would surround Israeli embassies and consulates around the world and there might be a few attacked and burned, maybe a few diplomats murdered or kidnapped and there might be a few riots and maybe a few people shot dead by security forces.
There might be a spike in terrorist attacks against Western targets. Muqtada Al-Sadr's Mahdi Army might launch a short insurrection before being squashed flat and forced to order a ceasefire.
Hezbollah and Hamas would launch attacks on Israel and another cycle of violence would gradually fizzle out in stalemate as Israeli jets hit Southern Lebanon and Israeli tanks assaulted Gaza.
The UN would go through the motions of formulating a resolution supported by China and Russia condemning Israel but it would be instantly vetoed by the US.
Oil prices would shoot up and there would be damage to the world economy however within a few months the crisis would die down as it would be clear that Arab Sunni regimes are now content that the Persian Shias has been humilated and European governments officially hostile to Israel would be secretly happy they didn't get their hands dirty.
To most Israelis the elimination of the possibility of Iranian nuclear weapons would be worth the short term pain.
Ira Glunts writes of the increasing likelihood of a US/Israeli attack on Iran.
“Israelis are mounting a full court press to get the Bush administration to strike Iran's nuclear complex,” according to David Martin of CBS News. Martin quotes Michael Oren, a CBS analyst, who is an American-born Israeli and well-connected to his government’s reliable sources, as stating, “[t]he Israelis have been assured by the Bush administration that the Bush administration will not allow Iran to nuclearize [sic].”
While Israel pressures the Americans via diplomatic and military channels, the U.S. Congress will shortly give its overwhelming support to two identical non-binding resolutions which will demand that President Bush impose a military blockade on Iran. H.Con Res. 362, the House version, and S.Res. 580, the Senate version, demand
I hate to rain on your parade but the Zionists don't have the bottle to attack Iran and talking it up here won't make it happen. They may huff and puff like some some wispy up-tight twit, spouting hot air on the internet but for all their storm and fury they are as impotent and a Persian eunuch.
Despite the fact that stupidity beyond belief has overtaken the US and Israel it would be suicidal for Israel to launch and attack on Iran. The world will not stand for a disruption in oil supplies and the massive rise in crude prices which would result from such an attack. The world no longer believes the lies of Israel and the US. Iraqi resistance would surge following such an attack as would Afghani resistance and many cells throughout the world, further crusing the dying US Empire.
Mess with Iran and the oil price will surge and there will be a severe disruption to global supply. The time when a bunch of bigoted Zionists in the Middle East could bend the US bully to their will has passed. One tolerates a spoiled child while it it only messing up it's own sand box and pulling the cats tail but when it threatens to burn down the family home it it time to take away its toys and give it a severe rebuke.
Israel is finished. Their defeat by Hizbollah and the failed invasion of lebanon was a graphic display of this. Israel is weak-willed and it has grown fat and decadent on the taxes of the American people, the money they sucked from the neck of the US taxpayer. But if they are so ignorant and stupid as to attack Iran it would really make my day to see what would become of them in the weeks and months that would follow notwitstanding the pain we would all feel from another oil crisis.