Juan Cole explains Iraq Gov't figure of 12,000 Dead

international | anti-war / imperialism | other press

Saturday June 04, 2005 13:42

by redjade

Juan Cole: ''....figures suggest that in US-dominated Iraq, people are dying so far at about the same rate as they did under Baath rule...'

Forgotten Fallujah

Juan Cole:
- Friday, June 03, 2005
12,000 Dead in Iraqi Guerrilla War
Rate of Killing Same as Under Saddam
http://www.juancole.com/2005/06/12000-dead-in-iraqi-guerrilla-war-rate.html

Ellen Knickmeyer of the Washington Post reports the allegation by Bayan Jabr, the Iraqi Minister of the Interior, that 12,000 Iraqis have died in the guerrilla war during the past 18 months.

[....]

The Washington Post did not refer to the findings of Knight Ridder for last summer that US troops were responsible for twice as many Iraqi deaths as the guerrillas themselves over a four-month period.

The figure of 12,000 killed in guerrilla violence in the past 18 months tracks generally with the figures arrived at by Iraq Body Count, which gives between about 22,000 and 25,000 civilian deaths for the two years since the beginning of the war. If we subtract the 7,000 or so civilians Iraq Body Count gives as killed during the war through May 1, 2003 from the minimum number, we get a postwar two-year total of 15,000, making an 18-month total of 12,000 plausible in this light. But the Lancet study suggested that much higher totals of civilian deaths are also plausible, up to 100,000 through fall, 2004. The majority of those deaths will have been caused by US aerial bombardment of civilian neighborhoods.

[....]

The 12,000 figure over 18 months would equal about 8000 deaths a year or 22 per day. As noted, this number is actually probably a gross underestimate.

Paul Wolfowitz at the World Bank, when questioned about the Iraq war that he helped spearhead, asked, "Would you really prefer to have Saddam Hussein in power?"

But the reason for not having Saddam in power was that he had killed so many people. If not having him means that 8,000 people a year have to die, then what? And what if the number of people dying in Iraq is even higher? What if it is not 8,000 a year, as Jabr maintains, but more like 50,000? Jabr's figures are only for casualties of guerrilla actions. What about all the Iraqis who have died as a result of US bombing raids on civilian quarters of cities? What about all the murders that occur as part of political reprisals?

The Baath Party was in power for about 35 years. If it had killed 8000 civilians per year, that would be 280,000 persons. That is about what is alleged, though it is probably an exaggeration. (The deaths in the Iran-Iraq war cannot all be laid at Saddam's feet, since he began suing for peace in 1982, but was rebuffed by Khomeini, who insisted on dragging the war out until 1988 in hopes of taking Baghdad and putting the Supreme Council for Islamic Revolution in power there. Likewise, Mr. Rumsfeld's offer of support to Saddam and greenlighting of the use of chemical weapons prolonged the war).

In other words, Bayan Jabr's figures suggest that in US-dominated Iraq, people are dying so far at about the same rate as they did under Baath rule. (If he is underestimating the civilian casualties, then it is possible that many more are dying per year than under Saddam!) In any case, Saddam's killing sprees were largely over with by the late 1990s, so the rate of death in Iraq now is enormously greater than it was in, say, 2001.

Wolfowitz should give up on the propaganda technique of just demonizing his opponents and then asking how anyone could want them in power. The real question is, are Iraqis better off under US auspices? So far, the answer with regard to the death rate is a resounding "No!"

above text from:
http://www.juancole.com/2005/06/12000-dead-in-iraqi-guerrilla-war-rate.html

Photo from:
Dahr Jamail's Iraq Dispatches Fallujah Photo Album...
://dahrjamailiraq.com/gallery/view_album.php?set_albumName=album28&page=1

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Comments (13 of 13)

Falluja Video released on Italian website

Sat Jun 04, 2005 13:45

Falluja revisited “il video”
http://www.roadstoiraq.com/index.php?p=345

This video released just today on italian magazine “DIARIO“, This video has been recorded in Falluja in early Janury, 2005, when the city was reopened to civilians after the American attack of November 8th, 2004 (“Operation Al-Fajr”, i. e. “the dawn”).

It’s an important document since the city was closed to reporters at that moment. This video was handed over to the Italian weekly magazine Diario by the Studies Center of Human Rights and Democracy of Falluja.

“Falluja-The day After” shows the total devastation of the Iraqi town, the corpses of the victims, the mass graves, the exhumation of many corpses by local rescue teams in order to try to recognize some of the victims. The last corpse shown in this video belongs to a 14 year old girl.

[ go to above link to download video ]

Baghdad Burning Blog takes on NY Times' Thomas L. Friedman

Sat Jun 04, 2005 13:54

"If the Arab world, its media and its spiritual leaders, came out and forcefully and repeatedly condemned those who mount these suicide attacks, and if credible Sunnis are given their fair share in the Iraqi government, I am certain a lot of this suicide bombing would stop"

- Thomas L. Friedman, NY Times Columnist
http://www.mafhoum.com/press8/239S27.htm

Baghdad Burning Blog replies....
The Arab world's spiritual and media leaders have their hands tied right now. Friedman better hope Islamic spiritual leaders don't get involved in this mess because the first thing they'd have to do is remind the Islamic world that according to the Quran, the Islamic world may not be under the guardianship or command of non-Muslims- and that wouldn't reflect nicely on an American occupation of Iraq.

Friedman wonders why thousands upon thousands protested against the desecration of the Quran and why they do not demonstrate against terrorism in Iraq. The civilian bombings in Iraq are being done by certain extremists, fanatics or militias. What happened in Guantanamo with the Quran and what happens in places like Abu Ghraib is being done systematically by an army- an army that is fighting a war- a war being funded by the American people. That is what makes it outrageous to the Muslim world.

In other words, what happens in Iraq is terrorism, while what happens to Iraqis and Afghanis and people of other nationalities under American or British custody is simply "counter-insurgency" and "policy". It makes me naseous to think of how outraged the whole world was when those American POW were shown on Iraqi television at the beginning of the war- clean, safe and respectfully spoken to. Even we were upset with the incident and wondered why they had to be paraded in front of the world like that. We actually had the decency to feel sorry for them.

Friedman focuses on the Sunni Arab world in his article but he fails to mention that the biggest demonstrations were not in the Arab world- they happened in places like Pakistan and Afghanistan. He also fails to mention that in Iraq, the largest demonstration against the desecration of the Quran was actually organized, and attended by, Shia.

Luckily for Iraqis, and in spite of Thomas Friedman, the majority of Sunnis and Shia just want to live in peace as Muslims- not as Sunnis and Shia.

more at
http://riverbendblog.blogspot.com/2005_05_01_riverbendblog_archive.html#111736857847338021

Iraq like Quaker terrorist campaigns in Pennsylvania?

Sat Jun 04, 2005 14:30

Last week, speaking to the International Republican Institute, [Bush] tried to reassure his audience with some American history.

"The American Revolution was followed by years of chaos," the president recalled.

"Our first effort at a governing charter, the Articles of Confederation, failed miserably. It took several years before we finally adopted our Constitution and inaugurated our first president. It took a four-year Civil War, and a century of struggle after that, before the promise of our Declaration was extended to all Americans."

If the message here is that U.S. troops will be in Iraq until a Gulf Gettysburg, it's not exactly reassuring.

And if Bush is actually recalling an American Revolutionary period similar to what's going on in Iraq at the moment, the Yale History Department, where he studied such things, might face loss of accreditation.

Which part of the United States in the 1780s particularly reminds the president of contemporary Iraq? The suicide stagecoach bombings? The Quaker terrorist campaign in Pennsylvania? The musket battles between Baptists and Methodists?

Juan Cole: The Zarqawi Myth & the great man theory of history

Sun Jun 05, 2005 18:23

Sunday, June 05, 2005
The Zarqawi Myth
http://www.juancole.com/2005/06/zarqawi-myth-jordanian-terrorist-abu.html

Jordanian terrorist Abu Musab al-Zarqawi (actually Ahmad al-Khalayleh of Zarqa) has been elevated by the Bush administration to an almost mythic position as the fomenter of much of the violence in Iraq. It isn't true. Most of the violence in Iraq is being undertaken by Baathists or Iraqi nationalists trying to drive the US out.

[....]

I don't trust those jihadi web sites. I think someone is jerking the US press around, and it could be anybody, including USG.

It doesn't matter, anyway. We historians don't believe in the great man theory, unlike the Bush administration. Zarqawi leads a social movement of several hundred persons, if he exists at all. If he is killed, the social movement will just go on.

U.S. Marines Detained 19 Contractors: "How does it feel to be a big, rich contractor now?"

Thu Jun 09, 2005 14:12

U.S. Marines Detained 19 Contractors in Iraq
- Most of the men are American security guards. Some say they were abused after being accused of firing at civilians and troops.

U.S. Marines forcibly detained a team of security guards working for an American engineering firm in Iraq after reportedly witnessing the contractors fire at U.S. troops and Iraqi civilians from an armed convoy, the military said Tuesday.

After three days of detention in jail cells at a U.S. military base in Iraq, 19 employees of North Carolina-based Zapata Engineering, including 16 Americans, were released last week.

All have resigned from the company and are returning home, U.S. and company officials said.

The employees have said that the incident in Fallouja last month was a case of mistaken identity. Several have accused the Marines of verbally and physically abusing them while they were in custody.

A Marine Corps spokesman denied that any abuse had taken place and said an investigation was continuing. No Iraqis or Americans were injured in the incident that prompted the arrests.

"The Americans were segregated from the rest of the detainee population and, like all security detainees, were treated humanely and respectfully," Lt. Col. David Lapan said Tuesday in an e-mail confirming the incident.

This is believed to be the first time that the U.S. military has detained private security personnel in Iraq for allegedly putting American troops and Iraqi civilians at risk. By some estimates, there are as many as 20,000 such workers in Iraq protecting American civilians and U.S. and Iraqi government officials.

[....]

The incident has also raised new questions about the treatment of captives by U.S. military forces. Several of the detained Zapata employees said that they were stripped and threatened by a snarling military dog while Marines jeered and took photos.

"I never in my career have treated anybody so inhumane," one of the contractors, Rick Blanchard, a former Florida state trooper, wrote in an e-mail message. "They treated us like insurgents, roughed us up, took photos, hazed us, called us names."

[....]

He said his clients told him that Marines had "slammed around" several contractors, stripped them to their underwear and placed a loaded weapon near their heads.

"How does it feel to be a big, rich contractor now?" the Marines shouted at the men, Schopper said, in an apparent reference to the large salaries security contractors can make in Iraq.

-- -- --

Also see:
Tension and Confusion Grow Amid the "Fog of War"
http://www.corpwatch.org/print_article.php?&id=12349

http://www.americancontractorsiniraq.com/

Mailing List
http://groups.yahoo.com/group/american_contractors_in_iraq/

18yr old offered Xbox, then kidnapped and 'recruited' for Iraq War

Thu Jun 09, 2005 14:49

A single mom with a meager income, Marcia raised her kids on the farm where, until recently, she grew salad greens for restaurants.

Axel's father, a Marine Corps vet who served in Vietnam, died when Axel was 4.

Clearly the recruiters knew all that and more.

"You don't want to be a burden to your mom," they told him. "Be a man." "Make your father proud." Never mind that, because of his own experience in the service, Marcia says enlistment for his son is the last thing Axel's dad would have wanted.

The next weekend, when Marcia went to Seattle for the Folklife Festival and Axel was home alone, two recruiters showed up at the door.

Axel repeated the family mantra, but he was feeling frazzled and worn down by then. The sergeant was friendly but, at the same time, aggressively insistent. This time, when Axel said, "Not interested," the sarge turned surly, snapping, "You're making a big (bleeping) mistake!"

Next thing Axel knew, the same sergeant and another recruiter showed up at the LaConner Brewing Co., the restaurant where Axel works. And before Axel, an older cousin and other co-workers knew or understood what was happening, Axel was whisked away in a car.

What's left of Fallujah?

Thu Jun 09, 2005 19:54

Christian Peacemaker Teams (CPT)
- with Voices in the Wilderness
The devastated city exposed itself as the visitors drove into different sectors. The main streets were busy with people walking, driving, and shopping. Shops were open, though many are still unusable because of the damage in November. Independent journalists and NGOs have reported that over 65% of the homes in Fallujah are destroyed or so badly damaged as to be unlivable. The team confirmed massive destruction of the homes and businesses in the city. A member of the reconstruction team for the city told the group that US and Iraqi security forces attacked 30 of the 55 mosques in the city and destroyed most of the electrical and water infrastructure.

photos...
http://www.vitw.org/gallery/DevastedFallujah

More Photos....
http://www.selvesandothers.org/article9820.html

and read
BLOG FROM BAGHDAD
By Joe Carr
http://www.lovinrevolution.org/reports_iraq.htm

$1,000 offered to any reporter to ask Bush about Downing Str Memo

Fri Jun 10, 2005 16:07

$1,000 question
Finally! A reason for the White House gaggle to grow spines: "Democrats.com is offering $1,000 to any White House reporter who will be brave enough to ask President Bush about the infamous Downing Street memo — and elicit a ‘yes’ or ‘no’ answer," reports Amanda Toering. "Fat chance. They’re also offering a consolation prize of $100, however, for simply asking the question (and then presumably being blacklisted). Asking the president — the First Amendment Guy! — an important, public-has-a-right-to-know question: $1,000. Losing your White House press pass: Priceless!"

http://www.alternet.org/peek/2005/06/003946.html

A bit late

by stumpie

Fri Jun 10, 2005 16:44

How far behind the times are you.
The question was asked and when the reporter was told of the "prize" was stunned; and stated that he knew nothing about it., Some of your posts are current others are silly

-stumpie-

yep - yer right -time flies fast

Fri Jun 10, 2005 17:18

June 9, 2005
About the Downing Street Memo...
US Media Shamed by Brit Journalist
By DAVE LINDORFF

Now, thanks to Blair's visit to Bush, and to the presence of less deferential British journalists at a joint White House press conference--instead of the usual White House press corps stenographers and TV airheads--Bush was forced to address the question of the memorandum, and the American media were forced to mention it. (The New York Times did so on page 7, the Philadelphia Inquirer, for the first time, on page 1). The question was asked by a Reuters reporter, Steve Holland.

Even so, the subsequent articles were cast, embarrassingly, as reaction pieces, with headlines like the one in the NY Times ("Bush and Blair Deny `Fixed' Iraq Reports"). In the case of papers like the Philadelphia Inquirer, this embarrassment was compounded. Inquirer readers might have been excused for being perplexed at reading a page one story headlined "`02 memo on Iraq is rebutted." It reads like a classic second-day follow-up story, but how would a reader know what the "`02 memo" reference meant, since there was no first story about the memo?

http://www.counterpunch.org/lindorff06092005.html

US in talks with Iraqi insurgents

Sat Jun 11, 2005 15:56

American diplomats and army commanders have held indirect talks with insurgents in Iraq, the first officially sanctioned contact between the two sides in two years of violence.

A US embassy official in Baghdad said efforts were under way to "engage" elements of the resistance in an apparent softening of the Bush administration's opposition to negotiations.

"In order to achieve stability and [an] end to the insurgency and stop Iraqis from being killed in large numbers, the insurgency has to be addressed," the official told reporters.

"I don't think the people we are sitting in the room with are directly operational, but they have relationships with them, sometimes through family ties, sometimes through previous associations with the previous regime."

The briefing was on the record but under embassy rules the official could not be named.

http://www.guardian.co.uk/Iraq/Story/0,2763,1503477,00.html

Downing Street memo: 2 out of 940 questions asked

Tue Jun 14, 2005 14:10

Since the Times of London published the memo on May 1, White House spokesman Scott McClellan has held 19 daily briefings, at which he has fielded approximately 940 questions from reporters, according to the White House’s online archives. Exactly two of those questions have been about the Downing Street memo and the White House’s reported effort to fix prewar intelligence. (Three weeks after the memo was leaked in Britain, McClellan prefaced a response to a question about it by telling White House reporters he was not familiar with “the specific memo.”)

Until Tuesday, the number of U.S. newspaper articles reporting on the Downing Street memo could be counted on two hands, including two articles in the New York Times, two in the Washington Post (print edition), and one each in Newsday, the Los Angeles Times, the Minneapolis Star Tribune and the Chicago Tribune. None of these ran on Page 1. In fact, both the Star Tribune and the Chicago Tribune articles focused on how little commotion the memo had caused in the United States, with the Chicago daily noting, “The White House has denied the premise of the memo, the American media have reacted slowly to it and the public generally seems indifferent to the issue or unwilling to rehash the bitter prewar debate over the reasons for the war.”

Pentagon Official Casualty numbers...

Tue Jun 21, 2005 17:04

Pentagon Official Casualty numbers...

http://www.defenselink.mil/news/casualty.pdf

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Juan Cole explains Iraq Gov't figure of 12,000 Dead

Comments (13 of 13)