The future of Iraq?

international | anti-war / imperialism | opinion/analysis

Wednesday June 14, 2006 16:35

by Peter Magee

What happens after US troops pull out?

Before I begin I must say I hate Bush and I hate this whole nihilistic Iraq war.
The Americans, I think we can all agree are in a quagmire in Iraq.
The country is ravaged by daily car bombings which have killed thousands of innocent civilians since 2003 while Sunni, Shia and Kurdish areas are at each others throats. Every day dozens of tortured and mutilated bodies have arrived at Iraqi hospitals after being dumped in the streets.
The country is on the brink of all out tribal and sectarian civil war.

Although the US is responsible for the deaths of thousands of Iraqis and the newly formed Iraqi army and police forces are not queasy when it comes to killing and torturing, it must be recognised that their superior firepower is the only force which is keeping Iraq from completely fragmenting and descending into complete chaos.

What if America decide that Iraq is another Vietnam and withdraw their forces in haste recreating in the Green Zone the same scenes on the rooftop of the US embassy in Hanoi in 1975?
What if America cuts funding for the Iraqi government, military and police?

In the space of a few months the Iraqi government would be replaced by military junta fighting for power. But there would be no return of a Saddam strongman.

At the moment infrastructure in Iraq is poor and law and order is arbitrary - these would be entirely nonexistent if full scale civil war broke out. Militia and insurgents have established and consolidated their power in the Kurdish, Sunni and Shia areas.

The result would be a three way civil war and wholesale ethnic cleansing. Hundreds of thousands perhaps millions of people - the vast majority of them innocent men women and children - would be slaughtered.
Millions of more le would flee and there would be an enormous humanitarian crisis - a potential famine in Iraq and gangs of human trafficers would take advantage of the survivors.

Shia Iran would seize its chance and invade Iraq and perhaps take over Kuwait too.
Saudi Arabia dominated by Sunni Wahhabists would fight to protect its borders.
Turkey would occupy the northern Kurdish area.

Iraq would become like Somalia - entirely ungovernable and controlled by Islamic gunmen bent on jihad and spreading holy war to throughout the world.

I wish Bush had not invaded Iraq, but the consequences of a US pullout right now endanger the entire world.

Blaming Bush is not going to chance that fact.

Comments (1 of 1)

On withdrawal....

by agryPerson

Fri Jun 16, 2006 16:21

Your analysis seems to be based on a number of flimsy arguments and assumtions:

1. "their superior firepower is the only force which is keeping Iraq from completely fragmenting and descending into complete chaos"

Superior firepower or no, the simple fact is that is not enough US (or viable Iraqi) troop numbers needed to effectivly police Iraq or put down a guirilla movement. Needless to say, also, the reason a majority of insurgents are fighting is the presence of foriegn troops, sectarian Iraqi army, and a puppet government.

2. What if America decide that Iraq is another Vietnam and withdraw their forces in haste recreating in the Green Zone the same scenes on the rooftop of the US embassy in Hanoi in 1975?

Firstly, it is not possible at the moment for any Coalition civilians to leave the green zone or associated areas (even to the airport) without a military escort. As for leaving the green zone and military bases permanently, I believe most polls show Iraqis in favour of this.

3. What if America cuts funding for the Iraqi government, military and police?

The current govenment has to hold sessions in the heavilly fortified green zone. The police/military are heavilly integrated with both insurgents and sectarian militias (interior ministry?). Funding indeed would be better served in other areas, perhaps even a government/policing force freely elected after foriegn troops have left.

4. In the space of a few months the Iraqi government would be replaced by military junta fighting for power.

I dont think the term "military junta", quite applies, it is more used for expressing a military dictatorship. Iraq is full of militias, some rivalling, but also most take guidance from spiritual leaders. The main militias (badr brigas, Kurdish peshmerga) have showed themselves in the past to be quite open to discorse. They also have nothing to gain from warring for power, none is strong enough to effectivly topple the others (allthough the kurdish groups could vie for autonomy). Again, the militias are currently "fighting for power" in the puppet government, and most (if not all) show support for the speedy withdrawal of occupation troops.

5. At the moment infrastructure in Iraq is poor and law and order is arbitrary - these would be entirely nonexistent if full scale civil war broke out. Militia and insurgents have established and consolidated their power in the Kurdish, Sunni and Shia areas.

Full scale civil war? And what may I ask is happening at the moment? Also the reason militias and insurgents have established power in many areas is because they have far more puplic support than the current government and they can provide some semblence of law and order. As for infrastructure, was it not the americans who destroyed it in the first place? This is an area for compensation.

As I read the rest of your post I realise your... not all there... But anyway...

Iran has nothing to gain from american withdrawal, it allready has power (the whole sistani bloc), and therefore has the americans in a compromising position. As for Jihadi's etc, do you not think that the current situation benifits them more? The country is indeed screwed at the moment, but It is only our western superiority complex (or money in our pockets) that thinks that the Iraqis are not capable of oragnaising their own (free) system of government.